fix(guard): derive cross-repository target base ref

Cross-repository mutation gating assumed the tracking base ref was
prgs/master, and parity reporting independently assumed origin/master.
A namespace bound to any other repository -- for example remote MDCPS on
integration branch dev -- could not prove base equivalence, so every
gated mutation failed closed with no reachable remedy. The two modules
also disagreed with each other, so at most one could be right for any
given repository.

Derive the target instead of assuming it. canonical_repository_root
already discovered the correct remote while resolving repository
identity and then discarded its name; it now returns that name with its
exact configured case preserved, and resolve_target_base_ref() builds
refs/remotes/<remote>/<branch> from it. The integration branch comes
from refs/remotes/<remote>/HEAD -- git's own record of the remote's
default branch -- so no new configuration field is required. Only when
a remote publishes no such default does it fall back to exactly one
present integration-branch candidate.

Resolution fails closed with a machine-checkable reason_code when
identity is unprovable, when distinct remotes claim different
repositories, when several candidate branches exist with no recorded
default, or when no candidate exists. It never invents a branch, writes
a ref, or falls back to another repository's base.

Both the mutation guard and the parity report now consume that one
resolved target, so they cannot disagree again. Root-checkout
contamination names the ref it actually compared rather than a literal
prgs/master the target repository may not have.

Fixes an observable defect in this repository: refs/remotes/origin/master
survives as an orphan ref from a removed remote, so parity reported the
target stale against a dead commit while reporting its identity as
underivable.

PRGS behaviour is unchanged -- prgs/master still resolves via the
recorded remote HEAD to the same SHA, and an explicit remote_refs
override keeps the historical probe path verbatim.

Tests: 24 new hermetic regression tests covering PRGS prgs/master,
MDCPS/dev, no origin remote, exact remote-name case, equal/behind/
divergent targets, missing remote or ref, ambiguous remote and branch
resolution, gate/report agreement, and every affected production
caller. Full suite 6191 passed / 28 failed, byte-identical failure set
to the baseline at 108cbfa (zero introduced failures).

Refs #983

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <[email protected]>

master_parity_gate.py

@@ -378,6 +378,11 @@ def format_parity(assessment: dict) -> str:
 # feeds the mutation gate and never changes startup_head/current_head.
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
+# Legacy hardcoded target tracking ref. Retained for callers that still pass an
+# explicit ref, but no longer the default: assuming a remote named ``origin``
+# read an unrelated (often orphaned) remote-tracking ref in any checkout whose
+# remote is named something else, and reported the target stale against a commit
+# from a remote that may no longer even be configured (#983).
 DEFAULT_TARGET_TRACKING_REF = "refs/remotes/origin/master"
 
 
@@ -408,7 +413,7 @@ def assess_target_repository_parity(
     *,
     canonical_root: str | None,
     source: str | None,
-    tracking_ref: str = DEFAULT_TARGET_TRACKING_REF,
+    tracking_ref: str | None = None,
 ) -> dict:
     """Assess the configured cross-repository target checkout.
 
@@ -421,6 +426,11 @@ def assess_target_repository_parity(
     An unconfigured namespace is ``configured=False`` and never ``stale`` — the
     single-repository default has no second dimension to be stale about. A
     configured root that cannot be read is ``determinable=False`` with reasons.
+
+    *tracking_ref* defaults to None, meaning **derive the target from the
+    repository itself** through the same resolver the mutation guard uses, so
+    gating and reporting can never disagree about which ref is authoritative
+    (#983). Passing an explicit ref preserves the previous behaviour verbatim.
     """
     result = {
         "configured": bool(canonical_root),
@@ -429,6 +439,9 @@ def assess_target_repository_parity(
         "repository_slug": None,
         "checkout_head": None,
         "tracking_ref": tracking_ref,
+        "base_remote": None,
+        "base_branch": None,
+        "tracking_ref_source": "explicit_tracking_ref" if tracking_ref else None,
         "remote_tracking_head": None,
         "determinable": False,
         "stale": False,
@@ -463,19 +476,35 @@ def assess_target_repository_parity(
     result["checkout_head"] = head
     result["determinable"] = True
 
-    remote_url = _git_capture(canonical_root, "remote", "get-url", "origin")
-    if remote_url:
-        # Local import keeps this module dependency-light for its startup role.
-        import remote_repo_guard
+    # Local import keeps this module dependency-light for its startup role.
+    import canonical_repository_root as _crr
 
-        parsed = remote_repo_guard.parse_org_repo_from_remote_url(remote_url)
-        if parsed:
-            result["repository_slug"] = f"{parsed[0]}/{parsed[1]}"
-    if not result["repository_slug"]:
+    # #983: identity comes from whichever remote actually proves it, not from a
+    # remote assumed to be named 'origin'. In a checkout whose only remote is
+    # 'prgs', the old lookup failed outright and reported the identity as
+    # underivable while a leftover refs/remotes/origin/master still resolved.
+    #
+    # Identity is resolved independently of the base ref: a target that has never
+    # been fetched still has a provable repository identity, and reporting it as
+    # unidentifiable would lose real information over an unrelated missing ref.
+    identity_remote, slug = _crr.resolve_identity_remote(canonical_root)
+    result["repository_slug"] = slug
+    if not slug:
         result["reasons"].append(
             "target repository identity could not be derived from its git remote"
         )
 
+    if not tracking_ref:
+        base = _crr.resolve_target_base_ref(canonical_root, remote=identity_remote)
+        if not base.get("proven"):
+            result["reasons"].extend(base.get("reasons") or [])
+            return result
+        tracking_ref = base["tracking_ref"]
+        result["tracking_ref"] = tracking_ref
+        result["tracking_ref_source"] = base.get("source")
+        result["base_remote"] = base.get("remote")
+        result["base_branch"] = base.get("branch")
+
     tracking_head = _git_capture(canonical_root, "rev-parse", tracking_ref)
     if not tracking_head:
         result["reasons"].append(