fix: fail closed on conflicting incident_links observation metadata

Legacy NULL-scope dedupe only compared Gitea targets, so duplicate rows
with the same provider key and issue but different fingerprint/status/
event_count/etc. collapsed to the lowest link_id and silently dropped
observation data. Migration now compares all meaningful observation
fields and refuses to discard conflicts (#619 RC3 / #613).

tests/test_control_plane_db.py

@@ -686,6 +686,93 @@ class ControlPlaneDBTest(unittest.TestCase):
             ControlPlaneDB(path)
         self.assertIn("conflicting", str(ctx.exception).lower())
 
+    def test_migrate_conflicting_observation_metadata_fails_closed(self) -> None:
+        """Same provider key + same Gitea target but differing obs metadata must fail closed.
+
+        Regression for silent data loss: migration used to keep lowest link_id and
+        delete peers after comparing only Gitea targets (#619 RC3).
+        """
+        import sqlite3
+        from control_plane_db import ControlPlaneDB, ControlPlaneError
+
+        path = os.path.join(self._tmp.name, "legacy_meta_conflict.sqlite3")
+        conn = sqlite3.connect(path)
+        try:
+            conn.executescript(
+                """
+                CREATE TABLE schema_meta (key TEXT PRIMARY KEY, value TEXT NOT NULL);
+                CREATE TABLE incident_links (
+                    link_id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
+                    provider TEXT NOT NULL,
+                    provider_base_url TEXT,
+                    provider_org TEXT,
+                    provider_project TEXT,
+                    provider_issue_id TEXT NOT NULL,
+                    provider_short_id TEXT,
+                    provider_permalink TEXT,
+                    fingerprint TEXT,
+                    gitea_org TEXT NOT NULL,
+                    gitea_repo TEXT NOT NULL,
+                    gitea_issue_number INTEGER NOT NULL,
+                    linked_pr_numbers TEXT,
+                    first_seen TEXT,
+                    last_seen TEXT,
+                    event_count INTEGER,
+                    status TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'open',
+                    release_resolved_at TEXT,
+                    last_sync_at TEXT,
+                    UNIQUE (
+                        provider, provider_base_url, provider_org,
+                        provider_project, provider_issue_id
+                    )
+                );
+                INSERT INTO incident_links(
+                    provider, provider_base_url, provider_org, provider_project,
+                    provider_issue_id, provider_permalink, fingerprint,
+                    gitea_org, gitea_repo, gitea_issue_number,
+                    event_count, status, first_seen, last_seen
+                ) VALUES
+                    (
+                        'sentry', NULL, NULL, NULL, 'dup-meta',
+                        'https://sentry.example/issues/1', 'fingerprint-A',
+                        'org', 'repo', 42,
+                        1, 'open', '2026-01-01T00:00:00Z', '2026-01-01T01:00:00Z'
+                    ),
+                    (
+                        'sentry', NULL, NULL, NULL, 'dup-meta',
+                        'https://sentry.example/issues/1', 'fingerprint-B',
+                        'org', 'repo', 42,
+                        99, 'resolved', '2026-01-01T00:00:00Z', '2026-01-02T00:00:00Z'
+                    );
+                """
+            )
+            n = conn.execute("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM incident_links").fetchone()[0]
+            self.assertEqual(n, 2)
+            conn.commit()
+        finally:
+            conn.close()
+
+        with self.assertRaises(ControlPlaneError) as ctx:
+            ControlPlaneDB(path)
+        msg = str(ctx.exception).lower()
+        self.assertIn("conflicting", msg)
+        self.assertIn("observation metadata", msg)
+
+        # Rows must still be present — migration must not delete before failing.
+        conn2 = sqlite3.connect(path)
+        try:
+            remaining = conn2.execute("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM incident_links").fetchone()[0]
+            fps = {
+                r[0]
+                for r in conn2.execute(
+                    "SELECT fingerprint FROM incident_links ORDER BY link_id"
+                ).fetchall()
+            }
+        finally:
+            conn2.close()
+        self.assertEqual(remaining, 2)
+        self.assertEqual(fps, {"fingerprint-A", "fingerprint-B"})
+
     def test_incident_links_minimal_upsert_is_canonical(self) -> None:
         """Repeated minimal upserts must update one row (NULL-safe uniqueness)."""
         a = self.db.upsert_incident_link(